
Overview of Lithuania’s Upcoming Pension System Reform: What Changes in 2026?
ISM Student Investment Fund | November 2025Authors: Jokūbas Bandza, Elzė K. Petrauskytė, Tadas
Pension pillars:
I pillar - state social insurance pension
II pillar - supplementary pension accumulation
III pillar - individual accumulation
Changes:
Withdrawal:
Opinions of experts and politicians
Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania Gediminas Šimkus (LB):
Swedbank chief economist Greta Ilekytė:
Luminor chief economist Žygimantas Mauricas:
Ingrida Šimonytė (TS-LKD):
Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen (Liberal Movement):
Simonas Gentvilas (Liberal Movement):
Inga Ruginienė (LSDP):
Remigijus Žemaitaitis (Nemuno aušra):
Summary
Mandatory pension accumulation in the II pillar is a complex and highly politically charged issue that has huge implications for the country’s economy. With continuously declining birth rates and population in Lithuania, in 2022 there were about 3.1 working people per one person of retirement age, and by 2050 this number may shrink even to 1.8 (Načajienė, 2022). Some welcome the liberal reform that encourages taking more personal responsibility and freedom of choice when saving for retirement, others see disproportionate risk and possible negative consequences of the reform for the country’s economy. Both sides of the political discourse are engaged, the Social Democratic Party together with the ruling coalition are implementing their electoral promises, while the current opposition is usually inclined to represent business interests. Based on the data of the Lithuanian Investment and Pension Funds Association (LIPFA), more than 10 billion euros have been accumulated in II pillar pension funds (“Kaupiančiųjų antroje pensijų pakopoje turtas perkopė 10 mlrd. eurų”, 2025), and direct investments into shares of Lithuanian companies make up about 1.5% (“Būsimų pensininkų lėšos vis gausiau investuojamos Lietuvoje”, 2025). According to LIPFA board member P. Kabelis (2025), over the past several years Lithuanian pension funds often acquired more than 10 or even 20% of intensively placed bond issues of Lithuanian companies. If residents withdraw part of the funds invested by pension funds, economic growth may slow down. Also, inconsistent government decisions create the impression of an unreliable investment environment for both domestic and foreign investors. Forecasts that residents will rush to withdraw their II pillar savings are strengthened by the very limited two-year opportunity window. A huge amount of money entering the country’s economy without real created added value will stimulate short-term private consumption. It is predicted that due to sharply increased consumption inflation will jump, therefore already around 2028 the government may have to increase consumption taxes and or the Bank of Lithuania may have to raise base interest rates (Mauricas, 2025). These changes are very relevant for our fund and for Lithuanian investors. If residents simply spend the pension fund money they withdraw instead of investing it, the capital directed to Lithuanian financial markets and the economy will decrease. The likely deterioration of the economic situation would only increase this effect. This could lead to a contraction of capital available to funds, a worsening Lithuanian investment climate and slower economic growth. Long-term motivation to accumulate may weaken and it may become more difficult for funds to plan their strategies.
References
Būsimų pensininkų lėšos vis gausiau investuojamos Lietuvoje – Lipfa. (2018). Lipfa.lt. https://lipfa.lt/busimu-pensininku-lesos-vis-gausiau-investuojamos-lietuvoje/
Burinskas, A., & Nuotr, A. A. (2025, November 14). Arūnas Burinskas. Milijardas iš pensijų – į prekybos centrus. lrt.lt. https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/verslo-pozicija/692/2742337/arunas-burinskas-milijardas-is-pensiju-i-prekybos-centrus
Donatas Brimeris. (2025, September 21). Ekonomistas Mauricas – apie antros pensijų pakopos pinigų dalybas: „Gyvensime pagirių laikotarpį“. Tv3.Lt. https://www.tv3.lt/naujiena/verslas/ekonomistas-mauricas-apie-antros-pensiju-pakopos-pinigu-dalybas-gyvensime-pagiriu-laikotarpi-n1453167
IGD. (2023, October 12). 1 pakopos pensija - IGD.lt. Investuok. Gyvenk. Džiaukis. | igd.lt. https://igd.lt/paslaugos/pensiju-pakopos/pirma-pensiju-pakopa/
Joteikaitė, J. Š. E. (2025, June 26). Seimas palaimino II pensijų pakopos pertvarką: nutarė, kada ir kaip galima pasitraukti. 15min.lt/verslas.
Kaupiančiųjų antroje pensijų pakopoje turtas perkopė 10 mlrd. eurų – Lipfa. (2018). Lipfa.lt. https://lipfa.lt/kaupianciuju-antroje-pensiju-pakopoje-turtas-perkope-10-mlrd-euru/
Limontaitė, S. (2025, November 8). II pakopos pensijų reforma: pasiimti pinigus ar tęsti kaupimą? Delfi. https://www.delfi.lt/projektai/mano-investicija/ii-pakopos-pensiju-reforma-specialistai-paaiskino-kas-naudingiau-atsiimti-pinigus-ar-taupyti-toliau-120171050
LrtLt, A. V. L. T. N. T., & Nuotr, J. S. /. L. (2025, June 1). Dalis valdančiųjų partijų lyderių nori pasitraukti iš pensijų kaupimo: pasigenda garantijų. lrt.lt. https://archyvai.lrt.lt/naujienos/verslas/4/2579589/dalis-valdanciuju-partiju-lyderiu-nori-pasitraukti-is-pensiju-kaupimo-pasigenda-garantiju
Načajienė, L. (2022, January 27). Prognozė: 2050 m. vieną Lietuvos pensininką išlaikančių dirbančiųjų sumažės daugiau nei trečdaliu. Luminor. https://www.luminor.lt/lt/naujienos/prognoze-2050-viena-lietuvos-pensininka-islaikanciu-dirbanciuju-sumazes-daugiau-nei-trecdaliu
Pensijų fondai. (n.d.). Swedbank. https://www.swedbank.lt/private/pensions?language=LIT
Pasitraukimas iš pensijų kaupimo. (n.d.). https://sodra.lt/naujienos/nuo-kitu-metusvarbus-pokyciai-pensiju-kaupime-atsiranda-galimybe-pasitraukti?lang=lt
Tv3Lt, N. P. (2025, November 8). Iš Lietuvos banko vadovo – žinia gyventojams: neskubėkite su sprendimu dėl II pakopos. tv3.lt. https://www.tv3.lt/naujiena/verslas/is-lietuvos-banko-vadovo-zinia-gyventojams-neskubekite-su-sprendimu-del-ii-pakopos-n1466177
III pakopos pensijų fondai. (n.d.). LB. https://www.lb.lt/lt/iii-pakopos-pensiju-fondai


Overview of Lithuania’s Upcoming Pension System Reform: What Changes in 2026?
ISM Student Investment Fund | November 2025 Authors: Jokūbas Bandza, Elzė K. Petrauskytė, Tadas
Pension pillars:
I pillar - state social insurance pension
II pillar - supplementary pension accumulation
III pillar - individual accumulation
Changes:
Withdrawal:
Opinions of experts and politicians
Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania Gediminas Šimkus (LB):
Swedbank chief economist Greta Ilekytė:
Luminor chief economist Žygimantas Mauricas:
Ingrida Šimonytė (TS-LKD):
Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen (Liberal Movement):
Simonas Gentvilas (Liberal Movement):
Inga Ruginienė (LSDP):
Remigijus Žemaitaitis (Nemuno aušra):
Summary
Mandatory pension accumulation in the II pillar is a complex and highly politically charged issue that has huge implications for the country’s economy. With continuously declining birth rates and population in Lithuania, in 2022 there were about 3.1 working people per one person of retirement age, and by 2050 this number may shrink even to 1.8 (Načajienė, 2022). Some welcome the liberal reform that encourages taking more personal responsibility and freedom of choice when saving for retirement, others see disproportionate risk and possible negative consequences of the reform for the country’s economy. Both sides of the political discourse are engaged, the Social Democratic Party together with the ruling coalition are implementing their electoral promises, while the current opposition is usually inclined to represent business interests. Based on the data of the Lithuanian Investment and Pension Funds Association (LIPFA), more than 10 billion euros have been accumulated in II pillar pension funds (“Kaupiančiųjų antroje pensijų pakopoje turtas perkopė 10 mlrd. eurų”, 2025), and direct investments into shares of Lithuanian companies make up about 1.5% (“Būsimų pensininkų lėšos vis gausiau investuojamos Lietuvoje”, 2025). According to LIPFA board member P. Kabelis (2025), over the past several years Lithuanian pension funds often acquired more than 10 or even 20% of intensively placed bond issues of Lithuanian companies. If residents withdraw part of the funds invested by pension funds, economic growth may slow down. Also, inconsistent government decisions create the impression of an unreliable investment environment for both domestic and foreign investors. Forecasts that residents will rush to withdraw their II pillar savings are strengthened by the very limited two-year opportunity window. A huge amount of money entering the country’s economy without real created added value will stimulate short-term private consumption. It is predicted that due to sharply increased consumption inflation will jump, therefore already around 2028 the government may have to increase consumption taxes and or the Bank of Lithuania may have to raise base interest rates (Mauricas, 2025). These changes are very relevant for our fund and for Lithuanian investors. If residents simply spend the pension fund money they withdraw instead of investing it, the capital directed to Lithuanian financial markets and the economy will decrease. The likely deterioration of the economic situation would only increase this effect. This could lead to a contraction of capital available to funds, a worsening Lithuanian investment climate and slower economic growth. Long-term motivation to accumulate may weaken and it may become more difficult for funds to plan their strategies.
References
Būsimų pensininkų lėšos vis gausiau investuojamos Lietuvoje – Lipfa. (2018). Lipfa.lt. https://lipfa.lt/busimu-pensininku-lesos-vis-gausiau-investuojamos-lietuvoje/
Burinskas, A., & Nuotr, A. A. (2025, November 14). Arūnas Burinskas. Milijardas iš pensijų – į prekybos centrus. lrt.lt. https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/verslo-pozicija/692/2742337/arunas-burinskas-milijardas-is-pensiju-i-prekybos-centrus
Donatas Brimeris. (2025, September 21). Ekonomistas Mauricas – apie antros pensijų pakopos pinigų dalybas: „Gyvensime pagirių laikotarpį“. Tv3.Lt. https://www.tv3.lt/naujiena/verslas/ekonomistas-mauricas-apie-antros-pensiju-pakopos-pinigu-dalybas-gyvensime-pagiriu-laikotarpi-n1453167
IGD. (2023, October 12). 1 pakopos pensija - IGD.lt. Investuok. Gyvenk. Džiaukis. | igd.lt. https://igd.lt/paslaugos/pensiju-pakopos/pirma-pensiju-pakopa/
Joteikaitė, J. Š. E. (2025, June 26). Seimas palaimino II pensijų pakopos pertvarką: nutarė, kada ir kaip galima pasitraukti. 15min.lt/verslas.
Kaupiančiųjų antroje pensijų pakopoje turtas perkopė 10 mlrd. eurų – Lipfa. (2018). Lipfa.lt. https://lipfa.lt/kaupianciuju-antroje-pensiju-pakopoje-turtas-perkope-10-mlrd-euru/
Limontaitė, S. (2025, November 8). II pakopos pensijų reforma: pasiimti pinigus ar tęsti kaupimą? Delfi. https://www.delfi.lt/projektai/mano-investicija/ii-pakopos-pensiju-reforma-specialistai-paaiskino-kas-naudingiau-atsiimti-pinigus-ar-taupyti-toliau-120171050
LrtLt, A. V. L. T. N. T., & Nuotr, J. S. /. L. (2025, June 1). Dalis valdančiųjų partijų lyderių nori pasitraukti iš pensijų kaupimo: pasigenda garantijų. lrt.lt. https://archyvai.lrt.lt/naujienos/verslas/4/2579589/dalis-valdanciuju-partiju-lyderiu-nori-pasitraukti-is-pensiju-kaupimo-pasigenda-garantiju
Načajienė, L. (2022, January 27). Prognozė: 2050 m. vieną Lietuvos pensininką išlaikančių dirbančiųjų sumažės daugiau nei trečdaliu. Luminor. https://www.luminor.lt/lt/naujienos/prognoze-2050-viena-lietuvos-pensininka-islaikanciu-dirbanciuju-sumazes-daugiau-nei-trecdaliu
Pensijų fondai. (n.d.). Swedbank. https://www.swedbank.lt/private/pensions?language=LIT
Pasitraukimas iš pensijų kaupimo. (n.d.). https://sodra.lt/naujienos/nuo-kitu-metusvarbus-pokyciai-pensiju-kaupime-atsiranda-galimybe-pasitraukti?lang=lt
Tv3Lt, N. P. (2025, November 8). Iš Lietuvos banko vadovo – žinia gyventojams: neskubėkite su sprendimu dėl II pakopos. tv3.lt. https://www.tv3.lt/naujiena/verslas/is-lietuvos-banko-vadovo-zinia-gyventojams-neskubekite-su-sprendimu-del-ii-pakopos-n1466177
III pakopos pensijų fondai. (n.d.). LB. https://www.lb.lt/lt/iii-pakopos-pensiju-fondai